Browns QB Battle 2026: Key Contenders and Predictions

Deshaun Watson's Contract Forces a 2026 Quarterback Crossroads

Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed $46 million base salary for 2026 makes him nearly unmovable financially, but his performance since returning from suspension in 2022 has not justified the cost. The Browns face a critical decision: restructure to lower the cap hit, or designate him a post-June 1 cut to save cap space while absorbing significant dead money. That choice hinges entirely on his 2025 play.

Watson's contract includes a $46 million base salary in 2026, fully guaranteed, with a cap hit that could exceed $60 million if no restructuring occurs. Cutting him would leave over $30 million in dead cap.

• If the Browns restructure, they spread the cap hit but extend the contract, risking further underperformance.
• A post-June 1 cut would save $20 million in 2026 cap space but create dead money through 2027.
• Even if Watson remains on the roster, Stefanski may bench him mid-season if another quarterback gives the team a better chance to win.

The Browns' front office must evaluate not only Watson's on-field production but also the opportunity cost of sticking with a high-priced underperformer. The 2026 season will be a referendum on the Watson trade.

Jameis Winston Leads the In-House Competition While a Rookie Looms as a Long-Term Answer

Jameis Winston's familiarity with Kevin Stefanski's offense and his veteran presence give him an early edge in the quarterback competition. However, his turnover-prone history limits his ceiling as a long-term starter. The Browns' draft capital in 2026 includes a second-round pick, which could be used on a quarterback like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye if the team tanks in 2025 — but trading up would be costly. Modern sports teams increasingly rely on data analytics to evaluate player performance, a trend explored in how MLB clubs like the Padres and Phillies use analytics to shape their strategies (read more).

Winston has started 80 career games, throwing 88 touchdowns against 62 interceptions — a ratio that underscores his boom-or-bust nature.

1. The Browns could target a top prospect in the 2026 draft if they finish with a high pick, but that would require missing the playoffs again.
2. A mid-round quarterback, such as a Michael Penix Jr. type, could emerge as a surprise starter, similar to Brock Purdy's rise in 2022.
3. Alternatively, the team may sign a veteran bridge like Jacoby Brissett to compete with Winston.

The franchise must decide whether to invest in a rookie who can develop behind a veteran for half a season, or to ride with Winston and hope his experience pays off.

The 2026 Schedule and Win-Now Pressure Will Determine Who Starts Under Center

The Browns' 2026 schedule opens with a brutal stretch: the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens in the first four weeks. An 0-3 start would likely force Stefanski to start a proven veteran like Jameis Winston over a rookie, prioritizing wins over development. If the team falls out of playoff contention by Week 10, expect a switch to a younger quarterback for evaluation purposes, mirroring the Arizona Cardinals' approach in 2024.

Kevin Stefanski's head coaching record through 2025 stands at 34-36, and a third consecutive losing season could cost him his job, making every game crucial.

• The early schedule difficulty means the Browns cannot afford a slow start; they need a quarterback who can handle pressure immediately.
• If the team is eliminated by November, a rookie could start the final six games to gain experience.
• Stefanski's job security may push him to win now, favoring a veteran even if the long-term answer is on the bench.

Ultimately, the Browns' quarterback decision in 2026 will be a balancing act between immediate success and future planning.

Key Takeaways

• Watson's contract creates a likely scenario where he starts 2026 but faces a short leash if he struggles.
• Jameis Winston is the top internal backup, but his inconsistency makes him a bridge rather than a long-term answer.
• The Browns will likely draft a quarterback in the 2026 class, but expect that player to sit for at least half the season.
• The early schedule difficulty may force the Browns to rely on a veteran to avoid an 0-5 start.
• A mid-season tank could allow a rookie to start the final six games for developmental reps.
• Ultimately, the 2026 QB battle will be settled by on-field performance and cap realities, not draft status.