Donald Trump NBC Poll: Key Insights and Implications

A recent NBC poll reveals that President Donald Trump’s approval rating among his 2024 voters is declining, posing a unique subtraction risk for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. The poll underscores a shift in electoral dynamics: the threat to the GOP is not an influx of Democratic voters but rather the possibility that Trump’s coalition members will stay home.

Trump’s Approval Slipping Among His 2024 Voters

According to the NBC poll, Trump’s approval among voters who supported him in 2024 has dipped, raising concerns within the GOP about turnout. This “subtraction risk” — the loss of support from disengaged voters — is emerging as a greater danger than any gains Democrats might make by attracting new voters or flipping Republicans.

“When both parties are viewed negatively, you are probably going not to see a lot of new voters,” said Texas-based GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak.

• Trump’s approval decline among his base threatens to depress turnout in key battleground states.
• Polls suggest Republican strategists are more worried about subtraction than addition of voters.
• The pattern marks a shift from 2018, when Democrats benefited from historic turnout.

Why the 2026 Landscape Differs from the 2018 ‘Blue Wave’

The 2018 midterms saw a surge of new voters opposed to Trump and defections from his 2016 supporters, creating a “blue wave” that flipped the House. The 2026 landscape, however, looks starkly different. Both parties are viewed negatively, and few strategists expect a similar influx of new participants.

Instead, the outcome may hinge on which party suffers greater falloff among its 2024 voters. All signs so far indicate that Republicans face the greater risk. For the GOP, the challenge is convincing frustrated voters not to sit out the election. Policy moves such as those outlined in Trump’s GOP defense budget plan could play a role in re-energizing the base, but the polling data underscores an uphill battle.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s approval decline among his 2024 voters poses a subtraction risk for Republicans in 2026.
• The 2026 election may see a different coalition dynamic than 2018, with GOP turnout more critical than Democratic gains.
• Polls suggest that Republican losses could stem from disengaged Trump supporters rather than swing voters.
• Democrats may benefit passively if Trump supporters stay home, but active gains remain uncertain.
• The outcome will likely hinge on whether Trump can re-energize his base before November.