Northern Lights Forecast: How to Predict Aurora Borealis Activity

Coronal Mass Ejections Trigger Geomagnetic Storms That Predict Aurora Activity

A coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on June 26 is forecast to reach Earth on June 29–30, potentially triggering a G1 or G2 geomagnetic storm. This storm could make the northern lights visible in 19 northern U.S. states, with Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, and Maine having the best viewing potential. The storm intensity directly determines how far south the aurora extends—a G2 storm can push the aurora to the northern horizon from states near the Canadian border.

"A coronal mass ejection — a cloud of charged particles — left the sun late on June 26 in Earth’s direction, with NASA models forecasting its arrival on Earth. It could cause up to a G2-class geomagnetic storm, which could mean aurora being seen on the northern horizon from U.S. states close to the border with Canada."

• The CME's arrival time is estimated for late June 29 to early June 30, with peak conditions possible within that window.
• G1 storms produce aurora typically confined to Alaska and Canada; G2 storms push the aurora southward into the northern tiers of the contiguous U.S.
• Real-time tracking of the solar wind and magnetic field data from NOAA's DSCOVR satellite can refine the forecast hour by hour.

Predicting aurora activity hinges on monitoring sunspot regions and CME trajectories. Hobbyists and forecasters alike rely on space weather models that have improved significantly, allowing for alerts days in advance.

The Full Strawberry Moon and Long Daylight Hours Complicate Visibility

Despite the promising geomagnetic storm, two astronomical factors will work against viewers. The full Strawberry Moon rises on June 29, flooding the night sky with moonlight and washing out faint auroral displays. Additionally, the long daylight hours following the June solstice mean that true darkness is brief, especially at higher latitudes. The moon's brightness is the single biggest obstacle for naked-eye observation this week, as it can reduce contrast between the aurora and the sky.

"Long daylight hours in the wake of last week’s solstice, coupled with the rising on Monday, June 29, of the full Strawberry Moon in the south, may make aurora harder to see."

• The moon is full on June 29, rising around sunset and staying up all night, peaking in the south around midnight.
• Twilight may last until nearly midnight in northern states, leaving only a narrow window of full darkness between midnight and 2 a.m. local time.
• Under such conditions, only the brightest auroral arcs or rays will be visible; faint green curtains may be invisible to the eye.

The combination of moonlight and extended twilight means viewers must be strategic about timing. The aurora is often most active around midnight, but the moon will be high then, so the best chance may come during the darkest hour after moonset (around 2 a.m. local time) if the storm continues.

How to Maximize Your Chances: Look North and Use Long-Exposure Cameras

To see the northern lights, find a location with dark skies away from city lights, and look north toward the horizon. Because the aurora may appear low and faint, clear skies and an unobstructed northern view are essential. A camera with long-exposure capability is your best tool for capturing what your eyes might miss—a 10- to 30-second exposure at a high ISO can reveal color and structure invisible to the naked eye.

"To view, look north, avoid bright lights, and use long-exposure camera settings, as cameras often capture faint aurora before the human eye."

• Use apps like My Aurora Forecast or websites like YouTube TV 2026: Pricing, Channels, and Changes’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to monitor the Kp index in real time.
• Set your camera to manual mode: ISO 1600–3200, aperture wide open (f/2.8 or faster), and shutter speed 10–30 seconds. Use a tripod.
• Check local cloud cover forecasts and avoid areas with light pollution (e.g., cities, shopping centers).

Even if the aurora is barely perceptible to your eye, a long exposure can yield stunning images. The camera's sensor accumulates light more efficiently than our retinas, so don't rely solely on naked-eye observation.

Key Takeaways

• The June 26 CME is forecast to produce a G1–G2 geomagnetic storm on June 29–30, with aurora possible in 19 northern U.S. states.
• The full Strawberry Moon and long daylight hours reduce visibility; the best chance is from midnight to 2 a.m. local time.
• Optimal viewing requires a dark, north-facing location with clear skies—avoid artificial lights.
• Long-exposure photography can reveal aurora not visible to the naked eye.
• Use aurora forecast tools (apps, NOAA) to track Kp index and cloud cover in real time.
• States like Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, and Maine are most likely to see the aurora.