Strait of Hormuz Oil Shipping: Risks and Global Impact

Ceasefire Talks Collapse, but Strait Shipping Lags at 17% of Pre-War Levels

Talks to extend the ceasefire between the United States and Iran have stalled, yet traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of pre-war volumes. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, U.S. forces have counted nearly 1,000 commercial vessels transiting the waterway over the past two months — an average of 17 ships per day.

That is just 17% of the pre-war daily rate, which exceeded 100 ships before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.

Most of the vessels observed were large cargo and container ships, indicating a significant shift in traffic composition since the conflict began. The ceasefire, brokered in early April, was intended to de-escalate hostilities, but negotiations for a permanent extension have broken down. Without a comprehensive agreement, the strait remains a theater of risk, with no clear path to restoring normal shipping volumes.

• Pre-war daily transit: over 100 ships
• Current daily transit: ~17 ships (17%)
• Monitoring period: two months under ceasefire
• Dominant vessel type: large cargo and container ships

Conflicting Maritime Data Highlights Monitoring Gaps in the Strait of Hormuz

The exact number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz remains disputed, revealing critical gaps in maritime monitoring. U.S. forces reported 1,000 vessels in two months, but Navy data from the Joint Maritime Information Center tallied only 558 cargo ships and oil tankers crossing during the three months from March 1 to June 3. Maritime data company Kpler counted 895 ships between March 1 and May 19, further muddying the picture.

The discrepancies likely stem from different counting methodologies — including or excluding small craft, vessels operating with Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) turned off, and ships using the Iran-sanctioned route versus the alternative Omani lane.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps established its own lane shortly after the war began, charging tolls on authorized ships and attacking those that crossed without permission. To bypass this IRGC-controlled lane, the U.S. Navy began mine-clearing operations in April and sent two destroyers through the strait to reestablish freedom of navigation near Oman’s coast. The U.S. military continues to quietly aid ships traveling without AIS, but the presence of “dark” vessels complicates tracking efforts.

• Inclusion or exclusion of small craft
• AIS-disabled vessels traveling “dark”
• Dual routes: IRGC-controlled lane and Omani lane
• Different observation periods and counting methods

Global Energy Markets Face Continued Uncertainty from Hormuz Disruptions

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil transit, making its disruption a direct threat to global energy markets. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, the absence of a permanent deal keeps the risk of sudden closures or attacks elevated. Pre-war flows of over 100 ships daily have been slashed to 17, creating sustained pressure on oil supply chains and price stability.

The daily transit of 17 ships underscores a persistent bottleneck in global oil supply, with futures markets pricing in continued volatility.

To secure an alternative route, Project Freedom launched last month aimed at escorting more ships through the Omani lane, but it ended after only a few days. Despite this, the U.S. military managed to carve out the Omani lane and has been quietly aiding ships get through while they travel “dark.” Meanwhile, tanker insurance premiums have spiked, and oil-importing nations face heightened economic stability risks. The limited capacity of the alternative route cannot compensate for the loss of normal strait transit.

• Sustained reduction in oil tanker traffic affects global supply
• Futures markets price in continued volatility
• Oil-importing nations face economic stability risks
• Military escort operations limited in scale and duration

Key Takeaways

• Strait of Hormuz oil shipping remains at roughly 17% of pre-war levels despite a fragile ceasefire, signaling prolonged disruption.
• Divergent ship count data — 1,000 in two months vs. 558 in three months — reveals monitoring challenges and potential underreporting.
• Geopolitical tensions persist as ceasefire talks stall, keeping global energy markets on edge.
• Over 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait, making any volatility a direct threat to economic stability.
• The dominance of cargo and container ships in current traffic underscores a shift away from oil tanker reliance during the conflict.