Trump State Approval Ratings: Latest Polls & Midterm Impact

Donald Trump State Approval Ratings: Civiqs Data Shows Underwater Swing States

With three months to go until the November 3 midterm elections, President Donald Trump enters one of the most politically important stretches of his second term facing a more challenging landscape than the one he inherited when he returned to office. A Newsweek analysis of Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll—based on 120,580 responses from registered voters—shows Trump's national approval at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, for a net approval of -23. The state-by-state picture reflects the same broad pattern: strongest in Republican territory, deeply negative in Democratic strongholds, and underwater across the battleground states likely to shape the outcome of the midterms.

National Overview

The data, comparing approval on July 30, 2026, with January 20, 2025—the first day of his second term—reveals a notable shift. Several states that began Trump's second term with positive net approval now sit in negative territory. Some of the biggest declines since January 2025 have come in Republican-leaning states that once formed the president's strongest base. This erosion in traditionally friendly territory is a warning sign for the administration as it heads into the midterms.

Swing State Breakdown

The implications for swing states are significant. Being underwater in every battleground means even small shifts in voter sentiment could help determine control of Congress. For example, in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—where Trump narrowly won in 2024—a net approval below zero could energize Democratic voters and depress Republican turnout. The controversies surrounding Trump's recent activities may also play a role in shaping voter perceptions.

Demographic Trends

The White House has consistently pointed to Trump's 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public support, arguing that voters delivered a mandate for the administration's agenda. But the polling suggests that mandate may be wearing thin. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among Trump's weakest demographic groups, according to the Civiqs data. These groups are often pivotal in midterm turnout, and their dissatisfaction could translate into losses for the GOP in November.

Local news outlets have picked up on the trend. The Commercial Appeal in Memphis and Greenville Online in South Carolina both reference low approval ratings in their states, though specific figures are not available. These reports align with the broader pattern of decline in Republican-leaning areas. The United States Studies Centre (USSC) has also weighed in, with an article titled "Trump's approval rating hits historic lows ahead of midterm elections," though the full content was not accessible. The headline alone suggests that the trend is being noticed internationally.

For voters, the numbers are a reminder that approval ratings are a snapshot, not a forecast. But for political strategists, the Civiqs data offers a granular look at where the president stands. The fact that Trump is underwater in every swing state is a stark contrast to his 2024 performance, when he won several of them. If these numbers hold, the midterms could be a referendum on the administration's first two years.

What does this mean for the upcoming elections? Control of the House and Senate hangs in the balance. Historically, the president's party tends to lose seats in midterms, and these approval numbers suggest that trend could continue. The student borrower settlement and other policy issues may also influence voter sentiment, but the approval data is the clearest signal of the political climate.

As the campaign season heats up, expect to see more polling like this. The Civiqs tracker will continue to update, and other pollsters will release their own numbers. For now, the picture is clear: Trump's approval is underwater in the states that matter most. Whether that translates into electoral losses remains to be seen, but the trend is not in his favor.

For those interested in the broader political landscape, international political shifts and local governance issues also offer context, but the focus here is on the numbers. The Civiqs data is a valuable tool for understanding where the president stands as the midterms approach.