UK Heatwave Forecast: Emergency Measures as Temperatures Surge

The UK is bracing for another surge of extreme heat this week, with the Met Office issuing a rare amber warning for Thursday and the government convening an emergency Cobra meeting. Prime Minister Andy Burnham will chair the session on Wednesday to coordinate the national response, as the country faces what forecasters say could be its hottest summer on record. This is the latest in a series of heatwaves that have made the UK's weather forecast a top concern.

UK heatwave weather forecast: What the Met Office says

The amber extreme heat warning covers a large swathe of England, with temperatures expected to peak in the mid-to-high 30s across the Midlands, Eastern England, London, south-east England, Yorkshire and Humber. A high of 38C is possible, which would match the threshold already hit in June and again in late July, according to Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon.

This week's heatwave follows a summer that keeps rewriting the record books. Sunday marked the 35th day of the year to reach 30C, breaking the previous annual record for such days. The Met Office now says the UK is on course to record its hottest summer on record for average temperature, with only average conditions needed for the remainder of August to surpass the record set last year. A new high in records going back to 1884 is even more likely for England and Wales.

The iconic summer of 1976, which holds the record for warmest average maximum temperatures, is also under threat. The Met Office calculates that the remainder of August needs to be only 0.72C above the 1991-2020 summer average to exceed it.

Forecast at a glance

Here's what to expect for the rest of the week:

• Wednesday: Temperatures build, with the hottest weather expected on Thursday. The amber warning comes into force.
• Thursday: Peak heat, with temperatures reaching the mid-to-high 30s across the Midlands, Eastern England, London, south-east England, Yorkshire and Humber. A high of 38C is possible.
• Friday and beyond: Heat is expected to ease somewhat, but the longer-term trend remains concerning.

Cobra meeting: who's involved and what's at stake

The Cobra meeting on Wednesday will bring together ministers from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Home Office, and the Department for Health, along with the Environment Agency. It will be the second such meeting this year on heatwaves, following one in June.

A No 10 spokesperson said the summer was proving "challenging" for "firefighters tackling wildfires, farmers working in drought conditions, and NHS staff in busy A&E units." The government said it would "continue to take the action needed to keep communities safe, protect water supplies and safeguard the environment."

The meeting comes as more areas in England were placed under drought status on Monday, and firefighters continue to battle a significant wildfire in the New Forest in Hampshire. The Cobra meeting's role in coordinating emergency response is under the spotlight as these pressures mount simultaneously.

Why this summer is different

Mike Kendon, senior scientist at the Met Office, put the situation in stark terms: "Another record-breaking summer now looks increasingly likely for the UK, following the second-warmest June, and second-warmest July on record and yet another heatwave imminent." He added: "These statistics are a clear reminder – if one were needed – of the stark changes that we are seeing in the UK's climate."

The climate crisis, driven by pollution from fossil fuel burning, makes every heatwave more likely and intense. Scientists have been clear that the kind of extreme temperatures now becoming routine in the UK would have been virtually impossible without human-caused global heating.

What to expect for the rest of the week

The hottest weather is expected on Thursday, with the amber warning in force across a broad area of England. While 38C is possible, even the mid-to-high 30s would be exceptional for August. The heat is expected to ease somewhat after Thursday, but the longer-term trend is what concerns forecasters: the UK's climate is shifting, and summers like this one are becoming the new normal.

For those planning outdoor activities, be aware that extreme heat will make viewing conditions challenging. And if you're in an area affected by drought, water restrictions may apply.

The bigger picture

This summer's heatwaves are not an isolated event. Europe has seen record-breaking temperatures, with the heatwave at the end of June described as the most severe ever recorded on the continent. The UK's experience is part of a broader pattern that is putting pressure on infrastructure, agriculture, and public health systems across the region.

The government's response, including the Cobra meeting, reflects the growing recognition that extreme heat is no longer a rare occurrence but a recurring challenge. As the climate continues to warm, the question is not whether the UK will see more summers like this, but how well prepared it will be.

Stay updated with the latest UK government emergency response to extreme heat for more information.